Afghanistan: India-Pakistan rivalry reignited
The Indian Consulate in Jalalabad was the target of a suicide attack on August 3. The attack, though did not harm the consulate or any Indian personnel, resulted in the death of 9 bystanders.
Analysis
The Indian Consulate in Jalalabad was the target of a suicide attack on August 3. The attack, though did not harm the consulate or any Indian personnel, resulted in the death of 9 bystanders. The Taliban, who were immediately considered to be the perpetrators of the attack, denied any involvement in the incident. However, both Afghanistan and India lay the blame on groups based out of Pakistan. A statement issued by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs claimed that "the main threat to Afghanistan’s security and stability stems from terrorism and the terror machine that continues to operate from beyond its borders".
The Jalalabad Police Commissioner told the Indian Ambassador, during an official briefing, that the attacks were carried out by trained militants belonging to the Lashkar-e-Taiba. According to a report published in The Tribune Indian officials were informed, following the Jalalabad attack, that the Indian Embassy in Kabul and the consulates in Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat and Kandahar were still on the target list of Pakistani groups. The report also said that New Delhi was cautioned that "the Taliban and transnational ’jihadi’ groups based in Pakistan will remain the principal instrumentality of Islamabad’s response to India’s increasing engagement in Afghanistan in the run-up to the drawdown by NATO troops". Just prior to the Jalalabad incident, reports warned that the ISI was plotting to have the Indian Ambassador to Afghanistan, Amar Sinha assassinated.
This is not the first time that the India-Pakistan rivalry has played out in Afghanistan. During the country’s civil wars, India and Pakistan have found themselves supporting opposing factions. For instance, between 1992 and 1995, Pakistan extended support to Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, while India, along with Iran, extended support to Burhunuddin Rabbani. Similarly, during the Taliban era in Afghanistan (1995-2001), India was one of the main backers of the Northern Alliance, the main opposition force to the Pakistan-backed Taliban movement. This rivalry has continued into the latest phase of the conflict as well and there is a fear that once the foreign troops withdraw from Afghanistan in 2014 this rivalry and competition between the two countries would intensify.
Traditional backyard?
Pakistan views Afghanistan as its traditional backyard and has been wary of India’s increasing influence in Afghanistan as it feels that it would undermine its own influence in the country. Moreover, Pakistan has long feared the possibility of strategic encirclement by India. It has accused India of using its embassies and consulates in Afghanistan post-2001 as a base for fuelling the insurgency in Pakistan’s Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. Thus, the need to balance India’s influence in the region and gain ’strategic depth’ in Afghanistan against India have been the driving force behind Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy – besides the problems over the Durand Line and the need to thwart the Pashtunistan movement. It is for this reason that Pakistan continues to extend support to the Afghan Taliban, despite its public support to the Hamid Karzai-led administration, as it considers the movement as the best option to safeguard its interests vis-à-vis Afghanistan. It is the Haqqani Network, in particular, which is considered to be the most effective strategic asset due to its apparent anti-India stance.
In order to counter the Indian presence in Afghanistan, Pakistan has resorted to acts of sabotage like the Jalalabad attacks. It has also been held responsible for the attacks on the Indian Embassy in Kabul in 2008 and 2009. Afghan officials have also accused Pakistan’s complicity in attacks on the Salma Dam being constructed by India in Herat province.
From India’s perspective, a larger role for Pakistan in Afghanistan, and prolonged instability in the country, could provide a spur to the radical forces in the region. India fears that such a situation would have a direct bearing on its own security. The alleged involvement of Afghan fighters in Kashmir in the 1990s and the hijacking of the Indian Airlines flight in 1999, in which the Taliban were seen as colluding with the hijackers, form the basis of such apprehensions. There is also a fear in New Delhi that post-2014 Pakistan would not only increase the pressure on Indian targets in Afghanistan, but also divert the attention of the Afghan Taliban and other jihadi groups based in Pakistan towards India. An Indian analyst, quoted in India Today, said, "It is very difficult to delink the current increase in violence in Kashmir from the events in Afghanistan. The militant groups are becoming emboldened and they have started looking at India as the main target."
India’s objective
Balancing Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan has, thus, been one of India’s objectives of India in Afghanistan as well. For instance, it is hoped that India’s non-military, non-political participation in Afghanistan’s reconstruction efforts will generate goodwill that could undercut Pakistan’s influence. It is for this reason that the bulk of India’s Small and Community-based Development Projects, which provides an opportunity for India to engage with the local communities, are based in the Pashtun-dominated south and east Afghanistan, which is also seen by Pakistan as its sphere of influence. Moreover, India also played a leading role in pushing for Afghanistan’s membership into SAARC and in the development of the Chabahar Port, which can provide an alternative access to sea to Afghanistan. Both these measures are aimed at reducing Afghanistan’s dependence on Pakistan.
However, as much as India’s efforts in Afghanistan may be aimed at undermining Pakistan, it has also been conscious of Pakistan’s concerns. This is evident from the limited role that it has played in Afghanistan’s security sector. The fact that India has been reluctant to send in troops into Afghanistan and has agreed to provide training to only about 1000 ANSF troops, whereas it poses a much greater capacity than that, has largely been the result of a conscious effort on India’s part to avoid antagonising Pakistan. There have been calls in recent times for India and Pakistan to cooperate in Afghanistan in order to ensure stability in the country, an outcome that would be desirable to both nations. However, while the military remains paramount in Pakistan’s foreign policy decision-making, and the trust deficit between the two becomes wider on account of incidents like the Jalalabad attacks and the recent skirmish along the LoC, Afghanistan is likely to remain an avenue for competition, rather than cooperation.
(The writer is an Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation)
Sri Lanka : Prisoner-swap deserves better attention
N Sathiya Moorthy
Media reports about the transfer of nine Indian prisoners serving terms in Sri Lankan jails to those in native Tamil Nadu could not have come at a more appropriate time for bilateral relations, particularly in the context of the strained perceptions in the south Indian State. Many, if not all of them, have been sentenced to long years in prison, including life-term, for drug-offences. Under the India-Sri Lanka Bilateral Agreement on the Transfer of Sentenced Persons signed in June 2010, they will serve the remaining portion of their prison terms nearer home, where their dear and near could visit them.
This is not the first time such prisoner-transfer has taken place. Earlier, 14 others, all from Tamil Nadu, had been transferred from Sri Lankan prisons to those in their native State. More may be transferred likewise in the coming weeks, months and years. If there are procedural delays in the process, it also owes to the Indian system, where Law & Order is a State subject, and paper-work takes a lot more time, unintentionally though.
Almost around the same time as the nine prisoners were now transferred to Tamil Nadu jails, the Sri Lankan media reported the arrest of another native of the south Indian State in that country, for travelling on a tourist visa and indulging in informal trade of essentials. A Jaffna court has since remanded him to 14-day custody, pending possible trial. It is a recurring occurrence, like the arrest of Tamil Nadu fishers in the Sri Lankan waters, but little or no interest is evinced by the political parties in the State, whatever the reason or motivation.
There is also little or no appreciation of the Sri Lankan Government’s efforts and cooperation in the matter of prisoner-swap in Tamil Nadu when compared to the high-decibel political criticism and public protests on the fishers’ issue. It is another matter that ’tourists’ indulging in ’informal trade’ in Sri Lanka are detained by the local police at times and allowed to go off without much noise or protests.
Like the Tamil Nadu fishers, these traders too return to Sri Lanka without much loss of time, to indulge in what essentially can be described only as illegal trade, violating stringent visa rules. They face similar prospects and problems as the fishers. But unlike the fishers, these traders are fewer in numbers, are not organised, and are also not concentrated in huge numbers in specific localities and locations along the State’s long coastline. Their movement within Sri Lanka too is restricted to smaller packets, within the well-defined land borders. Against this, their fisher brethren have the vast seas at their command – creating a source of tension, both for the Sri Lankan (Tamil fishers) and security agencies.
The parallel
The ’informal traders’ from Tamil Nadu have been hitting at the livelihood of their Tamil trader-brethren, particularly in the Tamil-majority North, and also in the East, where too they have customers. There is a parallel here again. It is akin to the way the Sri Lankan Tamil fishers have been protesting the continued presence and exploitation of their marine resources and daily catch by the Indian fishers with better yet banned equipment. Again, owing to numbers, concentration and consequent visibility, the Sri Lankan Tamil fishers are heard by their political and administrative leadership in Colombo, Jaffna and Trincomallee. The local traders do not have that advantage, either. Yet, the Sri Lankan Tamil traders in the Northern Province, particularly Jaffna town, are known to be ’tipping off’ and/or pressuring the their law-enforcement agencies against the encroachment by the Tamil Nadu groups, arriving at times in droves are in singles and two’s, cutting into their sales, profit-margins and incomes. Having borrowed heavily, in cash and/or stocks, post-war, thanks to the munificence of banks and wholesalers in distant Colombo, they cannot but take care of their immediate livelihood interests – just as their fisher brethren have become asserting themselves in the seas.
The Tamil Nadu polity needs to acknowledge that when it came to protecting their turf and trades-interest, the Sri Lankan Tamil fishers and traders alike do not stand on the ubiquitous ’ethnic divide’ to argue their case with Sinhala-dominated local authorities. To them, in practice, the ’ethnic issue’, thus is an internal affair. Like their politicos, they would want their Tamil Nadu brethren to stand up for them – but, again on their terms, and without any reference to trades-intrusion from across the sea. The local traders, in the post-war era, have borrowed heavily at high interest rates – at times, mindlessly — to re-launch their dwindling businesses. Intrusion by the Indian traders, who do not have to suffer spending on establishment expenses, like rent, electricity and salaries that are any way high, means that the latter could sell at a much cheaper price than one could sell goods, particularly textiles, in shops, for which often rents have to be paid – or, provided for.
It is another matter some of the Sri Lankans — Tamils, Muslims and Sinhalas, alike – are dealing in ’informal trade’ of the kind, stocking their shops and homes with goodies brought by couriers by flight from India, for selling at high margins. If in the post-war era, the two Governments had revived the forgotten passenger shipping between the two shores, it was based on the belief that the traders – informal or otherwise – in the two countries would be able to carry more goods than they can do by flight and at lower cost. If the attempt failed, it owed mainly to the lack of ’staying capacity’ of the chosen liner until the passenger flow picked up enough.
Misusing the facility
With the prisoner-swap agreement now becoming a reality, the Tamil Nadu Government in particular, and the State’s polity otherwise may have to look at the possibilities, and ensure that the facility is not misused, either by design or otherwise. It applies as much to fishers as traders, and others – who have taken comfort in the near-sure release after detention, at the instance of the Indian Government, for which the political parties and the Government in Tamil Nadu take due or undue credit, from time to time. Among the numerous fishers from the State that are now in Sri Lankan prisons, at least five have been charged with drug offences. Others may be let off after a time, as broadly indicated by Sri Lankan Foreign Secretary Karunatilaka Amunagama, but that does not necessarily mean that the Colombo dispensation and the Jaffna-based Northern Provincial administration would take it easy any more. With Northern Provincial Council polls due on 21 September, any elected administration there would be voicing its concerns about the livelihood issues of its people – just as their Tamil Nadu counterparts are doing – and, not otherwise.
The possibility of their transfer to prisons in Tamil Nadu, if such detainees were to be sentenced by Sri Lankan courts, should not be seen as an encouragement to wrong-doing. Instead, they should be educated to acknowledge that they cannot escape penalty, whatever the circumstances and whatever the understanding between the Governments. Better still, education and consequent facilitation should aim at their not resorting to illegal trade or other illegal activity of any kind – with a clear message that the Governments would not be there to back them. The reverse should be truer, still.
Two-way street
It is not as if Indians alone are offenders, and are detained in Sri Lankan prisons. Sri Lankan fishers, particularly from the Sinhala South, are also caught in Indian waters, often on the tuna-trail. Like the Nagapattinam fishers who are reportedly caught at times off the eastern Trincomallee coast in Sri Lanka, the Sri Lankan fishers are also detained by the Indian Coast Guard deep inside Indian territorial waters, off Andhra Pradesh and Orissa coasts, not to mention the Andaman Seas and the Tamil Nadu coast. The ’security concerns’ that Sri Lankan officials are at times talking about in the case of Tamil Nadu fishers is also a two-way street, given the strategic Indian installations en route of the Sri Lankan fishers.
For the record, the Sri Lankan Government in general and Fisheries Minister Rajitha Senaratne in particular have been seen as publicly discouraging their fishers from crossing the International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL). The Minister, more often than not, is on record that Sri Lankan (read: Sinhala) fishers violating the IMBL would be doing so at their risk, and could not expect their Government to bat for them. Political parties in the country have maintained a stoic silence on the issue, throughout, without interfering with what is essentially a governmental process. It contradicts the Tamil Nadu position, where the Government and the political parties in Tamil Nadu are heard loud and clear, every time their fishers cross over in to Sri Lankan waters, and are attacked/arrested there.
Maybe owing to the constant and continuing arrest of Tamil Nadu fishers in Sri Lankan waters, the Indian State has looked at reciprocity of early release without trial as a possible way to ease tensions. Tamil Nadu thus has a well-placed mechanism involving various security agencies from the Centre and the State well in place, to dispose of the case of ’innocent fishers’ from Sri Lanka, arrested by the Coast Guard in the nation’s territorial waters.
The same cannot be said about other Indian States, where again the detained Sri Lankan fishers are handed over to the local police by the Coast Guard. That includes Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and the Andamans. However, the situation seems to be improving, there, too, in early disposal of pending cases, release of Sri Lankan fishers and boats, where a fit case had been made out. Hiccups remain, however, and need to be addressed early on.
Needless to say, grey areas too will remain, on the prisoner-swap, that is. There used to be a tendency, particularly in Indian States like Tamil Nadu, for the State Government to announce term-relaxation for prisoners under certain categories, on occasions like the birth anniversary of one leader or the other. A royal hang-over from a very, very distant past in the Tamil Nadu context – where the last of the empowered royals date back to centuries – the practice has occasionally caught on in Sri Lanka, too, from time to time.
For now, pending Supreme Court case(s) in India may have come in the way of State Governments in the country taking bold to announce such concessions, at least until the law and procedure had been clearly laid down. Sure enough, the intention of the two Governments in signing the prisoner-transfer agreement too has not been to facilitate such relaxation, and convert a serious offence and consequent punishment into relative easy-going prison-term, if not a ’holiday’ of some kind.
(The writer is a Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation)
Country Reports
Govt agrees to talks with Taliban
The Foreign Affairs Ministry of Afghanistan announced this week that peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban were set to begin either in Saudi Arabia or Turkey. The ministry also announced that the government was open to the idea of a political office for the insurgents in one of these two countries.
Janan Mosazai, the spokesman for the Foreign Affairs Ministry, stated that the government still preferred holding peace talks within Afghanistan, but since that may not be acceptable to the Taliban, the government was willing for the talks to be held in Turkey or Saudi Arabia.
Mosazai, however, clearly stated that any office for the Taliban should conform to the rules set out by the Afghan government. He said, "The Afghanistan government is ready to have a contact with the Taliban through a political office and start negotiations, but not ready for any compromise on the constitution and the gains the people of Afghanistan have made so far over the past more than a decade". Moreover, he added that the government did not allow the reconciliation process to threaten the national unity or lead to anarchy and would not allow the "enemies" to reach their goals which they had not been able to achieve in the battlefield.
In another effort to give a boost to the peace talks, Afghan President Hamid Karzai is expected to visit Pakistan at the end of the month. This would be Karzai’s first visit to Pakistan since Nawaz Sharif became Pakistan’s Prime Minister. The trip is expected to focus on getting Pakistan to be a better partner in combating insurgency and how the Islamabad government can help get the Taliban back to the negotiating table. Mosazai said, "Reinitiating peace talks is one of the major motives behind President Karzai’s trip to Pakistan. Pakistan has a major role to play in support of the peace process".
This visit comes amidst a fresh set of accusations from the Afghan Ministry of Interior, which stated that the activities of Al Qaeda and the Haqqani Network based out of Pakistan pose the greatest threat to Afghanistan’s security.
Source: Khaama Press, 11 August, 2013; Pajhwok, 11 August, 2013; Tolo News, 10 August, 2013; Tolo News, 13 August, 2013
India reaffirms its commitment
India’s Defence Minister, A.K.Antony announced that India would fulfil its commitment to assist the Afghan National Security Forces as per the terms of the strategic partnership pact signed between the two countries. The partnership entails military support from India in the form of capacity building and equipment for the Afghan National Police (ANP) and Afghan National Army (ANA). Antony told the Indian Parliament that India would provide military assistance to Afghanistan as per its needs.
Gen. Zahir Azimi, spokesman of the Afghan Ministry of Defence (MoD), said that the Afghan-Indo military relationship is stronger than ever before. Referring to the recent statements of the Indian Defense Minister, Gen. Azimi said, "India’s military cooperation is part of the Afghan-Indian strategic partnership agreement. The cooperation is increasing everyday and I can frankly say that there is no obstacle standing in the way".
India also claimed that it was committed to complete the Salam Dam project. Amarjit Singh, India’s Consular-General in Herat said that the project would be completed within a year. Singh said, "Salma Dam will be completed within a year, the dam will start working within a year, and I want to reiterate that the Indian government is committed to this project".
Construction of the dam was supposed to be completed three years back, but due to growing security issues in the region as well as financing troubles the project was delayed.
Source: Tolo News, 13-14 August, 2013
Karzai backs Sayyaf for presidency
The National Coalition of Afghanistan revealed this week that a meeting had been held at the Presidential Palace last week during which Hamid Karzai put forth Abdurrab Rasoul Sayyaf as a potential presidential candidate for the elections in 2014.
The meeting was attended by Marshal Fahim, First Vice-President; Atta Muhammad Noor, Governor of Balkh province; Abdurrab Rasoul Sayyaf, head of Dawat-e-Islami Party; and Muhammad Ismail, Minister of Water and Energy. Reportedly, President Karzai took the opportunity to endorse Mr. Sayyaf and encourage those present at the meeting to extend their support for him as well. All except Mr. Noor are said to have agreed to extend support to Sayyaf for a presidential bid.
Although, the President’s office confirmed the meeting, it said that President Karzai has not announced his support for any specific candidate as of yet.
Source: Tolo News, 14 August, 2013
Jamaat ’s shutdown
The week saw another round of shutdown declared by influential religious political party Jamaat-e-Islami, which was marred by violent incidents of clashes across the country between the supporters of the party and law enforcement agencies. The violence had caused life of a person and hundreds injured including members of law enforcement agencies.
Jamaat observed countrywide shutdown on August 13 and August 14 as a reaction to High Court order of last month (July) that declared the party’s registration with the election commission as illegal because its charter breached the secular constitution, leaving it unable to contest next year’s general elections.
Bangladesh is reeling from deadly violence, which has erupted since a tribunal hearing allegations of crimes dating back to the war began handing down sentences, including against senior Jamaat figures. Around 150 people have died in the political violence since the beginning of the year, according to New York-based Human Rights Watch.
Meanwhile, the party is contemplating upon hosting a series of shutdowns, a non-cooperation campaign and other tough agitation programmes in its bid to prevent the Election Commission (EC) from disqualifying the party from running in the general elections.
The EC informed that it would cancel Jamaat’s registration when it receives the full text of the High Court verdict. This is a serious threat to its existence.
Jamaat, a key component in the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party-led 18-party alliance, had filed a petition with the Appellate Division of the Supreme Court seeking a stay on the High Court order but that was rejected. Like the EC, the party is waiting for the full judgment of the High Court after which it hopes to file an appeal.
Source:The Independence, 14 August, 2013; Skynews.com, 13 August, 2013; The Daily Star, 16 August, 2013
New group out to reorganise Huji
In sensational revelation a daily newspaper this week revealed that efforts are on to reorganise the banned terror outfit Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami (Huji) across the country under guise of conducting ’the Quran learning course’. This revelation juxtapose to the arrest of nine suspected militants by the police from a mosque in a remote village of Jhalakathi. During the raid police recovered an inactive grenade from the possession of the arrestees. They also found some "Jihadi publications" and a diary of Moshiur Rahman Milon, one of the nine. Moshiur is also leader of the arrested nine and was actively involved with Huji, had close tie with Huji leader Moulana Abdur Rouf, who is now behind bars.
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