RENEWABLES: TOO CHEAP TO METER?
Monthly Non-Fossil Fuels News Commentary: December 2016 – January 2017
India
The call to make solar roof tops mandatory for all upcoming residential societies along with a ban on use of diesel generator sets in highly-polluted urban areas like Delhi from CSE made it to the headlines. Decline in cost of solar panels including the capital cost is said to have reduced the levelised cost of electricity from solar panels to ₹ 10/kWh compared to ₹ 27-33/kWh for electricity from diesel generators. While one cannot dispute the numbers, especially when the sun is shining, these widely quoted figures ignore some basic facts about electricity and the way in which users view electricity. Electricity is a heterogeneous good along time, space, and lead time.
Laws of electromagnetism constrain storage, transmission and flexibility of electricity and different sources such as coal, diesel and solar produce different goods with different heterogeneity and marginal value. Fuels that can be used at any time, any place and at the lowest lead time to generate electricity command a premium because users want electricity at any time, any place and with the lowest possible lead time. That is among many reasons why residential complexes in Delhi and its surrounding areas invest in a diesel generator rather than in solar systems notwithstanding the campaign by the activist groups that solar power is cheaper. If any energy fuel for electricity generation is really cheap and in addition met the expectations on reliability, robustness and lead time one would not require activist groups to promote that source of energy. The recommendation on making roof top solar mandatory also ignores the finding that when it comes to evaluating the impact of subsidies for solar, roof tops produce lower ‘bang for the buck’ than utility scale plants. Moving to transmission corridors being built especially for renewable energy, Mercom Capital report that said that infrastructural development under the green energy corridor was slow and not at par with the pace of tenders coming out was surprising. Over the next three quarters, solar projects of approximately 9 GW is expected to be commissioned, but the grid is said to be unprepared. The Power Grid Corp of India is reportedly developing the inter-state transmission corridor and the state transmission utilities are said to be responsible for setting up and strengthening the intra-state transmission infrastructure. The MNRE is reported to be providing 40 percent of project costs in the form of a grant. The argument that there is inadequate transmission capacity to evacuate power is not new and is heard even in the case of hydro power projects in remote locations. The presumption is that demand will materialise if there is transmission capacity. The reality probably that transmission capacity will materialise if there is demand.
After a long pause of many years news on bio-fuels has started appearing in the media. One was that poll-bound Punjab would get a Second Generation Ethanol Bio-refinery as the Centre at village Tarkhanwala, Bathinda. With an investment of nearly ₹ 600 crore, HPCL, a Public Sector Undertaking, is setting up the project. The production of Second Generation Ethanol from agricultural residues to provide additional sources of remuneration to farmers. It is also expected to address the growing environmental concerns and support the EBP programme for achieving 10 percent Ethanol Blending in Petrol. Oil PSUs are reportedly planning to set up twelve 2G Ethanol Bio-refineries across 11 States such as Punjab, Haryana, UP, MP, Bihar, Assam, Odisha, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka and AP. IOC and BPCL are said to have a pact with the Pune-headquartered engineering company Praj Industries to set up plants to manufacture ethanol.
Moving to nuclear power, it was reported that the government had decided to increase the nuclear power generation capacity of atomic reactors at Kovvada in Andhra Pradesh by nearly 20 percent, and that a fresh Environment Impact Assessment was being carried out. The capacity of 6×1000 MW has been increased to 6×1280 MW. The reactors at Jaitapur, being built by French company EDF, have a capacity of 1,650 MW, while the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant, being built with Russian assistance, has the generation capacity of 1,000 MW.
The IWT has remained in the news for some months now. The latest development is that the World Bank, one of the original sponsors of the IWT had decided to stall the two parallel processes – appointment of a neutral expert and setting up of a court of arbitration – to resolve the disputes over Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects in J&K. The hope probably is that India and Pakistan would resolve the issues in an amicable manner and in line with the spirit of the Treaty.
Rest of the World
The global renewable finance sector has been at the forefront in declaring the death of coal. The latest is the report in Bloomberg that in 2016, countries from Chile to the United Arab Emirates broke records with deals to generate electricity from sunshine for less than $0.03/kWh half the average global cost of coal power. Auctions in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Mexico are expected to take the prices even lower. According to the report, since 2009, solar prices have fallen by 62 percent, with every part of the supply chain trimming costs. By 2025, solar will be cheaper than using coal on average globally, says Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Surprisingly the report also included the rebuttal from the coal industry that cost comparisons involving renewables do not take into account the need to maintain backup supplies and that when those expenses are included, coal remains more economical.
In the nuclear sector there was disappointing news for advocates of nuclear energy in USA with the announcement that the aging Indian Point nuclear power plant will be shut down in 2021. Located along the lower Hudson River about 30 miles north of New York City, Indian Point produces 2,000 MW of electrical power, which is a quarter of the power used in New York City and Westchester County. The plant’s two reactors went online in 1974 and 1976.
In Japan, a government panel that has held intensive meetings since October said the next six months will be ‘make or break’ for TEPCO’s reform efforts, after it earlier nearly doubled the estimated costs of the Fukushima disaster to more than $180 billion.
MW: Megawatt, GW: Gigawatt, kWh: Kilowatt hour, EBP: Ethanol Blended Petrol, TEPCO: Tokyo Electric Power Company, UP: Uttar Pradesh, MP: Madhya Pradesh, AP: Andhra Pradesh, J&K: Jammu and Kashmir, IOC: Indian Oil Corp, BPCL: Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, HPCL: Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd, IWT: Indus Waters Treaty, MNRE: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, CSE: Centre for Science and Environment, PSUs: Public Sector Undertakings
NATIONAL: OIL
MobiKwik registers 10 times growth in oil, gas sector
January 17, 2017. Domestic mobile wallet major MobiKwik announced that it registered 10 times growth within the past week in transactions from the oil and gas sector. Mobikwik powers digital payments for all major petrol vends of Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Indian Oil Corp in 20 cities. MobiKwik recently announced zero surcharge on all transactions from oil and gas sector.
Source: The Economic Times
For RIL, demonetisation had positive impact on retail but petrochemicals demand hit
January 17, 2017. Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) saw a positive impact of demonetisation on its organised retail business, but demand growth was affected in petrochemicals and petrol pumps, the company said. The company’s petrochemicals business did well, but not without hiccups, which are temporary. In the petrol pumps segment, Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) gained as scrapped notes were made valid for fuel purchases from their retail outlets but the same concession was not extended to private pumps.
Source: The Economic Times
Oil, gas conservation fortnight Saksham 2017 begins with petroleum industry support
January 17, 2017. To create awareness among the public about the need for judicious use and conservation of petroleum products and help protect environment, the oil industry under the aegis of the ministry of petroleum and natural gas and the Petroleum Conservation Research Association (PCRA) will organize oil and gas conservation fortnight this month. This year, ‘SAKSHAM 2017’ (Sanrakshan Kshamta Mahotsav) is being observed by the oil industry across the country from January 16 to February 15. Also, mass awareness campaigns will be organized by oil companies in Punjab during the fortnight. Governor of Punjab and UT administrator VP Singh Badnore inaugurated ‘SAKSHAM- 2017’ at a function organized by the oil industry at Tagore Theatre. The governor appreciated the efforts of oil and gas companies in spreading the message of conservation of petroleum products.
Source: The Economic Times
Budget 2017: Ministry seeks cut in excise duty on ATF
January 17, 2017. The civil aviation ministry, as part of its Budget recommendations, has sought a reduction in excise duty on aviation turbine fuel (ATF), or jet fuel, to 8% from 14%, by rolling back an increase made last year. The government had raised the duty to compensate for its tax loss, as global crude oil prices fell to below $30 a barrel. Crude oil prices have doubled now. Rising fuel cost is a concern for the airline industry, which has started reporting profits after a long spell of losses. A more than 20% increase in air passengers and low fuel prices were the key drivers of the improved performance. To be sure, the duty hike helped temper volatility in fuel prices — though local prices didn’t fall in line with global rates earlier, they may not rise too much either now, if the government rolls back the tax increase it made.
Source: The Economic Times
Karnataka allows sale of kerosene in open market
January 17, 2017. The Karnataka government has decided to allow the sale of white kerosene in open market. State Food and Civil Supplies Minister UT Khader said that the government has issued an order this effect. Those interested in selling white kerosene in open market can approach the office of the Food and Civil Supplies in their districts, he said. He said the government will take steps to distribute pulses to the PDS (public distribution system) cardholders below the poverty line. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah had announced that PDS cardholders below the poverty line would get protein-rich commodities in addition to the carbohydrate-rich ones.
Source: The Hindu Business Line
Petrol price hiked by 42 paise a litre, diesel by 1.03
January 16, 2017. Following the recent spurt in oil prices to well over $50 a barrel, Indian Oil Corp (IOC) hiked prices of petrol by 42 paise a litre, and of diesel by ₹ 1.03, both in Delhi. Petrol per litre now costs ₹ 71.14 in Delhi, ₹ 73.66 in Kolkata, ₹ 77.96 in Mumbai and ₹ 70.61 in Chennai. Similarly, the new diesel price is ₹ 59.02 in Delhi, ₹ 61.27 in Kolkata, ₹ 64.89 in Mumbai and ₹ 60.73 in Chennai. Rates were last hiked on January 1, petrol by ₹ 1.29 a litre, and diesel by ₹ 97 paise, both in Delhi, with corresponding changes in other states.
Source: Business Standard
India fuel consumption to hit 200 mt in 2016/17: Oil Ministry
January 16, 2017. India’s fuel consumption is likely to hit 200 million tonnes (mt) in 2016/17, the oil ministry said, in what would be the highest such level in at least 16 years. India’s fuel consumption surged 10.9 percent to 183.5 mt in 2015/16. A level of 200 mt would compare to almost 1 billion tonnes in United States (US) fuel consumption and to around 575 million tonnes of demand in China.
Source: Reuters
No returning to subsidies on petrol, diesel: Govt
January 16, 2017. The government ruled out reverting to the system of subsidising auto fuel but said it may resort to cut in excise duties if rate hike “pinches hard” even as there has been ₹ 5.21 per litre hike in petrol price and ₹ 4.45 in diesel rates since December. The surge in international oil prices has led to petrol prices being hiked for the fourth time since December and thrice in case of diesel. When oil prices slumped in the second half of 2014 and early 2015, the government hiked excise duty on petrol and diesel nine times to mop up additional revenues that helped it meet its revenue and fiscal deficit targets. In all, it raised excise duty on petrol by ₹ 11.77 a litre and that on diesel by ₹ 13.47.
Source: The Economic Times
BJP, SP at war over cut in kerosene quota for distribution in UP
January 15, 2017. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has raised voice against the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) on the issue of distribution of kerosene. Alleging that the state government is deliberately trying to brew resentment among people against the BJP-led NDA government at Centre on the issue of kerosene, BJP Kashi Pranth (regional) unit has made a complaint with the Election Commission (EC). In a complaint forwarded to EC on behalf of party, vice-president of BJP Kashi Pranth unit Neelkanth Tiwari said the Union government had allocated the quota of 2,23,416 kl of kerosene to Uttar Pradesh (UP) on December 28, 2016 for distribution through fair price shops. However, the food and civil supply department of UP issued an order on January 9 to release this quota to the dealers by curtailing 22,782 kl of kerosene. According to joint secretary of Superior Kerosene Oil (SKO) Dealers Association Lalit Kumar, the quota of kerosene of states is released by the Centre on quarterly basis. He said that on getting 10% less quota of third quarter of 2016-17 financial year, the 11 dealers of three petroleum companies in the district contacted the state office-bearers when it came to light that Centre had not reduced the quota but it had been curtailed by the civil supply department of the state. The dealers are also supplying 10% less oil to the fair price shop owners.
Source: The Economic Times
India’s 2016 Iran oil imports hit record high
January 13, 2017. India’s annual oil imports from Iran surged to a record high in 2016 as some refiners resumed purchases after the lifting of sanctions against Tehran, according to ship tracking data and a report. The sharp increase propelled Iran into fourth place among India’s suppliers in 2016, up from seventh position in 2015. It used to be India’s second-biggest supplier before sanctions. For the year, the world’s third-biggest oil consumer bought about 473,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Iran to feed expanding refining capacity, up from 208,300 bpd in 2015, the data showed. In December, imports from Iran trebled from a year earlier to about 546,600 bpd. In 2015 refiners slowed purchases due to sanctions which choked payment routes, insurance and halved Iran’s exports. Indian refiners Reliance Industries Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL) last year resumed imports from Tehran, attracted by the discount offered by Iran.
Source: Business Standard
Consumers, petrol pumps not to bear card transaction fee: Oil Minister
January 12, 2017. Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said consumers and petrol pump owners will not have to bear the transaction charge for using plastic money to pay for fuel. He said banks and government-run fuel retailers will bear any burden of merchant discount rate (MDR, or transaction fee) on card transactions at petrol pumps.
Source: The Times of India
NATIONAL: GAS
ONGC’s KG gas field to touch peak in July
January 17, 2017. Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) expects to scale peak output of about 5 million metric standard cubic meters per day (mmscmd) from its Vashishta gas field in Krishna-Godavari (KG) Basin by July this year. Vashishta and S1 gas fields, located in the KG Offshore Basin off the east coast of India, began operations in September last year. The fields were developed under a greenfield deepwater development project at an investment of $751.65 million. The Vashishta field is estimated to produce 9.56 billion cubic metres (bcm) over a period of nine years with peak production reaching 3.55 mmscmd during the first five years. The S1 field is expected to deliver 6.22 bcm over a period of eight years with a peak production of 2.2 mmscmd for the first five years. As part of the Vashishta and S1 field development, ONGC is drilling four wells and shipping the gas from them through a sub-sea pipeline to an onshore terminal at Odalarevu in Andhra Pradesh, he said. Vashishta is the first field in the country to get the premium price of gas. In March last year, the government had allowed higher price for new gas production from difficulties areas like deep sea, ultra deepwater and high pressure, high temperature areas. When ONGC started production the premium price was $6.61 per million British thermal unit (mmBut) as against a cap price of $3.06 per mmBut for regular fields. The premium price for period between October 2016 and March 2017 was cut to $5.3 per mmBtu based on benchmark rates in gas surplus economies. The rate for regular gas price also declined to $2.50 per mmBtu. The gas was sold to state gas utility GAIL.
Source: The Economic Times
Cairn India gets nod for drilling 64 exploratory, appraisal wells in KG Basin
January 17, 2017. A committee under the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change has given a green signal to Cairn India for undertaking drilling works of 64 exploratory and appraisal wells in KG-OSN-2009/3 block in KG Basin at Prakasam and Guntur districts of Andhra Pradesh. The Expert Appraisal Committee (EAC) while according to environmental clearance set a few conditions along with other specific and general environmental conditions relevant to the project proposal. Cairn India has proposed for drilling of 55 exploratory and 11 appraisal wells in KG-OSN-2009/3 block in Offshore KG Basin. The offshore block in the Bay of Bengal along the coast of Andhra Pradesh is spread over an area of about 1988 km. The block covers partly the offshore areas of Prakasam and Guntur districts.
Source: The Indian Express
Centre’s penalty on producing gas from ONGC share not sustainable: RIL
January 17, 2017. Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) said it was confident that the Union government’s penalty on producing natural gas from ONGC’s share of natural gas in the KG Basin is “not sustainable”. In November, the government slapped a $1.55 billion penalty on RIL. The company has served an arbitration notice against the penalty.
Source: Business Standard
NATIONAL: COAL
CIL to restart search to secure coal assets overseas
January 17, 2017. Coal India Ltd (CIL) will again scout for reserves of coking coal and high-grade low ash thermal coal in countries such as the US, Colombia, Canada, Australia, Indonesia and South Africa. Mozambique, where last year it had to surrender a block taken for exploration because of its unfavourable geology, is not among the target countries this time, according to bid documents released by CIL. The public sector behemoth appears to be a little behind in seizing the opportunity to secure assets when coal prices were low, experts said. But the CIL management is of the view that asset prices may have still not bottomed out. Several coal producers in the US, including Peabody Energy Corp—the world’s largest private sector coal miner—were until recently wallowing in losses and had filed for bankruptcy last year in the wake of falling coal prices. But coal prices have started to firm up again, and many of them might emerge from the crisis within months with the help of fresh bank funding. Inviting bids from investment bankers, CIL said it will not be able to meet the demand for coking coal and high-grade low ash thermal coal from its own mines in India, despite efforts to ramp up production. Reserves of recoverable coking coal, which is used in production of steel, is limited in India, and high-grade low ash thermal coal is almost unavailable in India, the document said. This isn’t the first time CIL is scouting for assets abroad. Under the leadership of Partha S. Bhattacharyya, who retired as CIL chairman in February 2011, the company had almost concluded a deal to acquire a 10% stake in Peabody Energy, which would have given it access to a large volume of coking coal mined in Australia at a concessional price. But the deal didn’t materialise because there were no clear guidelines on overseas acquisitions, Bhattacharyya had then said.
Source: Livemint
Coal imports down 25 percent at 14 mt in December
January 16, 2017. Coal imports fell by 25 percent to 14.31 million tonnes (mt) in December, due to higher availability of domestic fuel. The country had imported 19.15 mt of coal in December 2015. The coal import in November, 2016 was at 12.51 mt. Further, mjunction, an online procurement and sales platform floated jointly by Steel Authority of India Ltd and Tata Steel said, there was sharp increase in non-coking coal imports in December as compared to November last year as non-power sector consumers started stocking up the material in the aftermath of softness in international prices towards end of November. International coal prices softened by 15 percent in the first week of December 2016 compared with the prices prevailing in the third week of November and this prompted price-sensitive Indian consumers to bring in higher quantities of imported coal that has consistency in quality, mjunction said. Expressing concern over import of coal despite being surplus in the dry fuel, Coal Minister Piyush Goyal had said that Coal India Ltd (CIL) has set a target to replace about 15 mt of imported coal with indigenous fuel in the next few months. Helped by a record coal production by the world’s largest coal miner CIL, India reduced its import bill of the dry fuel by more than ₹ 28,000 crore in the last fiscal.
Source: The Economic Times
Coal consumers express concern on coking coal price hike by CIL
January 14, 2017. Coal consumers said hike in coking coal prices by Coal India Ltd (CIL)’s subsidiaries could lead to an increase of power generating cost by ₹ 0.40 per unit and would hurt the steel industry, which is facing subdued demand. Bharat Coking Coal Ltd (BCCL) increased its coking coal prices by about 20 percent while Central Coalfields Ltd (CCL) raised its prices. Coal consumers said price hike would compel power utilities along with steel and related industries buying coal from BCCL and CCL to import fossil fuel. Overall impact is huge on power houses buying coal from BCCL as well as steel industry which is reeling under dampening demand, she said, adding that this hike would discourage fair competition and buying coal from BCCL may not be viable for power utilities as per unit cost would be much more than others.
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